As the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer primary draws near, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has been tipped to win the election, with 57 percent of delegates casting their votes for him across the country.
Several polls, including the latest by Info Analytics, have all reported favourable responses for the former Vice President in what will pass as the most fiercely contested internal election in the history of the NPP.
Trailing behind him is former Assin Central Member of Parliament (MP), Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, who is expected to garner 28 percent of votes, the survey suggested.
In the run-up to the January 31, 2026 flagbearer race, the first since the party unfolded an expanded Electoral College, there has been an unusually rancorous campaigning by some of the contestants, with Kennedy Ohene Agyapong’s firebrand rhetoric making the headlines most of the time.
Mussa Dankwa’s Info Analytics survey, which commenced soon after the NPP flagbearer aspirants completed and submitted their nomination forms, has been consistent in tipping Dr. Bawumia as the frontrunner in the race.
The latest poll, conducted between December 29, 2025, and January 23, 2026, according to the accompanying details, surveyed 10,133 respondents across all 16 regions and 272 constituencies using a random probability sampling method.
The computer-assisted telephone interviews upon which the survey was undertaken is the final prediction model ahead of the election.
Five contestants; Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum and Kwabena Agyepong are vying for the highly coveted flagbearer position of one of the two dominant political parties in the country.
Dr. Bryan Acheampong, the survey suggests, will secure 13 percent as Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum gets two percent.
Kwabena Agyepong, is recorded at 0 percent in the poll.
The survey, Info Analytics states, “has a confidence level of 99.9 percent and a margin of error of ±1.57 percent” with the predictive model bearing “a margin of error of ±3.0 percent.”
A survey released earlier by Info Analytics on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, put Dr. Bawumia at 73 percent followed by Kennedy Ohene Agyapong at 19 percent and Bryan Acheampong, 5 percent.
There were no percentages for undecided and others who were not ready to disclose the way of their votes, a situation which denied the survey the opportunity to give a broader picture of the likely outcome of the polls.
The survey did not also account for as many as 20 percent of delegates who were undecided and not ready to disclose who they were going to vote for.
Dr. Bawumia, as it were, was leading at the time and under the aforementioned conditions leading with 45 percent, and Kennedy Agyapong, 31 percent, leaving out an outstanding 20 percent to be fought for by the contestants. Dr. Bawumia was nonetheless in a commanding lead, with Kennedy Ohene Agyapong dropping.
In another focus of the December polls, the survey posted that 56 percent of Ghanaians preferred Dr. Bawumia to lead NPP, with 28 percent going for Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, 6 percent in favour of Dr. Bryan Acheampong and 4 percent for Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum.
It has also been reported that the recent verbal attack of Kennedy Ohene Agyapong on Dr. Bawumia has impacted negatively on the electoral fortunes of the former. This loss has led to the gains of the other contestants, the report suggested.
Rival Survey Reports
With contestants engaging all manner of means to win the Saturday polls, some have resorted to engaging pollsters to churn out favourable survey reports; a mind game which they hope to turn the tides in their favour. In some of the surveys, other candidates have been given wins of over 50 plus one votes.
One of such reports put Kennedy Agyapong as leading the pack with a huge percentage. Pastors have also jumped into the fray with assortment of predictions so conflicting that the intentions of their efforts are too glaring to be ignored.
Under the circumstances, survey reports have come under intense integrity questioning. The consistency of the survey constituting the basis of this story stands it out from the rest.
Expanded Electoral College
In an effort to address the anomaly of vote buying and enhance the integrity of the NPP’s internal elections, an expanded Electoral College was announced last year.
It was triggered by a major amendment to the party’s internal electoral structure.
Announcing same during the party’s National Annual Delegates Conference held on July 19, 2025, Frank Davies, Chairman of the Constitution Amendment Committee, revealed that the proposed 2025 amendment had been adopted, and significantly widening the scope of eligible voters in the party’s presidential primary.
“Whereas the National Council of the party has, pursuant to Article 13(1) of the constitution, scheduled January 31, 2026 as the date to elect the party’s 2028 presidential candidate,” Davies stated, “the National Annual Delegates Conference has adopted an amendment to expand the Electoral College for this purpose.”
According to the amendment, the new Electoral College will now include all former Members of Parliament (MPs), all former parliamentary candidates, all former Metropolitan, Municipal, and District Chief Executives (MMDCEs), all card-bearing former ministers and deputy ministers, all former regional, constituency, and branch executives, all members of the National Council of Elders and National Council of Patrons, regional and constituency patrons and elders and all TESCON coordinators.
The change is part of the party’s broader restructuring efforts aimed at enhancing internal democracy and ensuring a more inclusive selection process.
The expanded Electoral College is expected to bring in a more diverse group of voices and institutional memory, increasing transparency and engagement as the party prepares for the 2028 elections following its loss in 2024.
A Daily Guide Report