Kennedy Agyapong
Pan African Civil Society Organisation, Sanity Africa, has tipped Kennedy Ohene Agyapong to win the upcoming New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer election, pointing to a first-round victory of 52 per cent.
According to the survey, conducted between December 2025 and January 2026 and released on Monday, January 26, Mr. Agyapong is followed by former Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia on 40 per cent, Dr. Bryan Acheampong garnered 7 per cent, while Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum and Ing. Kwabena Agyepong received 0.7 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively.
The survey, which is Sanity Africa’s final predictions on the NPP presidential elections, sought to gauge the voting intentions of NPP delegates ahead of the polls scheduled for January 31, 2026, based on the expanded voter album. Consequently, individuals not listed in the expanded album were not included in this study.
The results were segmented by gender, religion, age, and employment status, with Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leading among NPP male delegates with 48.9 per cent, compared to Mr. Ken Agyapong’s 42.4 per cent. Dr. Acheampong ranked third with 6.1 per cent, while Dr. Adutwum comes fourth with 2.0 per cent, with Ing. Agyepong at 0.6 per cent.
On the other hand, Mr. Agyapong held a commanding lead among female delegates, securing 57.8 per cent against Dr. Bawumia’s 37.1 per cent. Among women as well, Dr. Acheampong remains the third preferred candidate, ahead of Dr. Adutwum and Ing. Agyepong.
Religion
The organisation introduced religion as a variable to assess how voters are influenced by two key factors: the religion of the candidate and the religion of the voter, and how these elements may shape voting decisions in the presidential primary.
The results showed that over half of respondents who identified as Muslims consider religion important in their decision-making, with 52.8 per cent indicating support for Dr. Bawumia on that basis, compared to 43.1 per cent for Mr. Agyapong.
Conversely, respondents who identified as non-believers, atheists, or traditionalists showed a preference for Mr. Agyapong, 55.1 per cent over Dr. Bawumia, 40.6 per cent.
Among Christian respondents, a majority indicated that religion is a very important factor in their leadership choice, with 61.6 per cent saying they would vote for a candidate who shares their faith—specifically Mr. Agyapong. Meanwhile, 31.3 per cent stated that religion would not influence their decision and preferred Dr. Bawumia as their flagbearer.
Interestingly, Dr. Adutwum —described by many as ‘an Elder of a Church’—ranks third among Christian voters, with Dr. Acheampong in fourth place and Ing. Agyepong in fifth place.
Age
Dr. Bawumia appears to resonate more with adult voters, particularly those in the middle-age group (40 to 55 years). Among this group, Dr. Bawumia leads Mr. Agyapong by over 3 percentage points—49.7 per cent compared to 46.3 per cent.
Similarly, among mature voters (aged 55 years and above), Dr. Bawumia remains the preferred candidate, leading Mr. Agyapong by nearly 10 percentage points—47.8 per cent versus 38.6 per cent. Dr. Adutwum is the third choice in this category, while Dr. Acheampong ranks fourth followed by Ing. Agyepong.
Among the youth (delegates under 40 years), Mr. Agyapong enjoys overwhelming support, with 63 per cent indicating they would vote for him, compared to 33.5 per cent for Dr. Bawumia. In this group, Dr. Acheampong emerges as the alternative in the absence of Mr. Agyapong or Dr. Bawumia.
Employment Status
This variable was categorised into four segments: Full-time employed (FT job), Self-employed/Businesspeople, including market women, artisans, farmers, and traders, unemployed and students.
Students were separated from the unemployed to distinguish between individuals actively seeking employment and those currently not available for full-time work.
Among respondents with full-time employment, Dr. Bawumia is the preferred candidate, securing 53.8 per cent support compared to Mr. Agyapong’s 41.9 per cent. Across all four employment segments, Dr. Acheampong consistently ranked third, averaging 4.3 per cent of total voter preference.
The self-employed group—including traders, market women, and businesspeople—showed a strong preference for Mr. Agyapong as the NPP’s flagbearer, with 55.5 per cent support, compared to 39.5 per cent for Dr. Bawumia.
Mr. Agyapong also leads decisively among students and the unemployed. Among students, 58.9 per cent prefer him over Dr. Bawumia (32.7 per cent), while among the unemployed, 52.8 per cent support Mr. Agyapong compared to 39 per cent for Dr. Bawumia.
These trends among students and the unemployed mirror findings from the age-based analysis, where delegates under 40—who are most likely to fall into the student and unemployed categories—overwhelmingly favour Mr. Agyapong over the other three candidates.
A Daily Guide Report