Fitch Solutions, the research arm of global credit ratings agency Fitch, has projected the country’s inflation to rise by 9% by the end of 2026 despite the cedi’s strong performance in recent times
Associate Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, who made the projection during PwC Ghana’s webinar on the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review said the expected increase will largely be driven by renewed pressure on the Ghana cedi.
According to the Associate Director, the sharp decline in inflation in recent months has been largely supported by the cedi’s strong performance however, he indicated that the projection is based on the new stance by the Bank of Ghana
“Now, based on the new stance of the Bank of Ghana, in the coming months, we don’t expect the cedi to stabilise strongly,” he stated.
Fitch also believes this will be driven by stronger domestic demand, mounting imported inflation as the cedi weakens on a year-on-year basis as well as higher food prices linked to El Niño-related weather disruptions adding that it will rise further to 13.2% by the end of 2027.
Mr. Kruiniger also said Ghana remains relatively insulated from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, supported by elevated gold prices which will continue to provide a strong external buffer, coupled with the country’s broadly balanced energy trade position while maintaining a positive outlook for the country’s economy despite concerns about inflation.
Technical Advisor to the Finance Minister, Dr. Theo Acheampong, said the Ministry of Finance still expects inflation to end 2026 within its target range of 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points.
He said the projection is based on several scenarios and economic assessments undertaken by the ministry and also assured the public that the government is committed to fiscal discipline to sustain the current macroeconomic gains.
Fitch Solutions’ forecast is significantly higher than Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson’s latest projection of 5% inflation by the end of the year maintaining that inflation would fall to 5% by December despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
By Ebenezer K. Amponsah