Ghana’s inflation will average 12.8% in 2027, up from a projected 6.0% in 2026, Fitch Solutions said in its latest report, warning the rise will weigh on household purchasing power and private consumption.
The UK-based firm said a tighter-than-expected US Federal Reserve policy in response to elevated inflation would pressure global gold prices and Ghana’s export earnings.
“This would put pressure on the cedi, resulting in higher inflation than we currently forecast and a corresponding drag on household consumption and broader economic activity in H2 2026 and 2027,” the report stated.
Fitch said exceptionally low inflation in early 2026 was driven by year-on-year strength of the cedi, which contained imported price pressures. But as base effects from the cedi’s sharp revaluation in early 2025 fade, inflation will face upside pressure in the second half of 2026.
Ghana’s inflation rose to 3.7% in May 2026 from 3.4% in April 2025, driven by seasonal food supply constraints and unfavorable base effects.
Economic Growth
Fitch Solutions projects economic growth will moderate to 4.7% in 2027 from 5.7% in 2026 due to less favourable base effects and weaker agricultural output. Stagnant oil and cocoa production will constrain export growth, it said.
Fiscal pressures will also intensify as principal repayments under the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme, (DDEP) launched in December 2022, fall due, while Eurobond debt-service obligations increase.
“As a result, a larger share of government resources will be directed towards debt servicing at the expense of government consumption,” the firm noted.
Risks to the 2026-2027 growth outlook are tilted to the downside, Fitch said. A tighter US Fed stance could hit gold prices and Ghana’s exports, pressuring the cedi and pushing inflation higher.
On the upside, the firm said domestic demand could prove more resilient than anticipated. “Should consumer and business sentiment remain strong — despite rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty — household spending and private investment would likely outperform our expectations. In this scenario, economic growth would exceed our current forecasts.”
Meanwhile, Fitch expects economic activity to remain robust in Q2 2026 despite disruptions in global energy markets from the US-Iran conflict. It said Ghana’s macro fundamentals are relatively insulated due to a broadly balanced oil trade position and elevated gold prices.
While domestic fuel prices have increased 8.8% since the start of the US–Iran conflict and diesel prices are up 19.7% in USD terms, increases remain below market levels as the government absorbed part of the cost, the report said.
“As such, inflationary pressures have remained contained: headline inflation rose only modestly from 3.2% year-on-year in February to 3.7% in May, remaining well below the 2010-2025 average of 15.7%.
This suggests that household purchasing power remains intact, supporting private consumption growth,” it added. Ghana’s economy expanded 6.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, up from 5.8% in Q4 2025.
A Business Desk Report