When Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson mounted the podium in Parliament on November 13, 2025 to present the 2026 Budget, his tone was one of renewed confidence. “Ghana is back,” he declared, crediting the Mahama administration with restoring fiscal discipline, stabilising the cedi, and breathing life into an economy he described as having been “weighed down by debt” and “stripped of confidence.”
The theme, “Resetting for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation”, was designed to signal a shift from crisis management to robust economic reconstruction.
Twenty-four hours later, however, former Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam and his Minority Caucus offered a sharply contrasting narrative. To them, the 2026 Budget is not a blueprint for transformation but a polished façade that conceals underperformance, revenue failures, liquidity constraints and a worrying collapse of market confidence.
Between the triumphalism of the government and the alarm raised by the Minority lies a complex economic story that deserves honest examination. This feature dissects both documents (the Budget Statement and the Minority’s response) to help Ghanaians understand where the country stands, what the numbers truly say, and what lies ahead.
The Promise: A Reset And A Rising Black Star
The government believes Ghana has turned a corner. Inflation, which peaked at 39.2% in 2023, has declined to 22.9% in 2024 and is projected to fall to 16.6% by end-2025 and 9.9% in 2026. The Minister credits strengthened macroeconomic management and renewed investor confidence.
The budget also reports a 6.3% GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025, driven mainly by services, agriculture and parts of industry. The government claims stability has returned to the foreign exchange market too. After years of volatility, the cedi has appreciated from around GH¢14 to GH¢11 to the U.S. dollar.
This, the Minister maintains, is the result of improved market confidence and targeted interventions by the Bank of Ghana. Above all, the Minister declared a new phase: Ghana was moving from recovery to transformation, with jobs, infrastructure and economic diversification at the centre of the national agenda.
Big-ticket initiatives like the 24-Hour Economy, the Big Push Infrastructure Agenda, commercial agriculture expansion and investments in education and health were presented as pillars of a new productive era. It was a message of optimism, discipline and forward movement.
The Dispute: Who Deserves Credit For The Stability?
But the Minority argues that the credit claimed by the government is overstated, and in some cases misplaced. They insist that the improvement in inflation, reserves and non-oil GDP growth were already expected because of the IMF programme negotiated by the NPP government in 2023.
The 2026 Budget, they argue, offers nothing new: “The NDC has simply stuck to the script developed by the NPP and the IMF two years ago.” Then they introduce a striking allegation: that the cedi’s stability has not been organic, but heavily “purchased” through massive foreign exchange interventions.
According to the Minority, the Bank of Ghana has injected about US$8 billion into the market since January, using reserves accumulated by the previous administration. If true, they argue, the cedi’s stability is not a victory of policy but a costly and unsustainable expenditure.
The government does not address this figure directly in the Budget, leaving a critical question unanswered: is the cedi rising because the economy is strengthening, or because the Bank of Ghana is burning reserves?
The Budget Execution Gap: Discipline Or Disguise?
The most heated confrontation between the two sides revolves around fiscal discipline. The Minister presented himself as the champion of prudence, curbing waste, sealing leakages and restoring order to the public purse.
Yet the Minority says what the government calls discipline is actually systematic under-spending, particularly in areas critical for growth.
According to the budget data analysed by the Minority: Goods & Services (Q1–Q3 2025) Programme: GH¢5.1bn Actual released: GH¢3.8bn only 56% of the annual allocation was spent. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) (Q1–Q3 2025) Programme: GH¢26.6bn Actual released: GH¢11bn only 34% of the year’s allocation was executed.
The Minority says this is not prudence but a liquidity crisis. They estimate that the under-execution: cut effective demand by 0.514% of GDP, shaved off 0.41% of GDP in lost output (≈ US$469m), cost the state US$75m in forgone revenue, and weakened future growth by 0.1 percentage point.
To them, the Budget’s bright façade hides a troubling truth: that the government is unable to fund its own programmes, leading to a cycle of arrears, delayed payments and stalled projects.
The Flagship Programmes: Big Push Or Big Doubt?
The Budget makes bold promises, but the Minority questions the math behind them.
- The 24-Hour Economy. Government says this ambitious initiative will modernise the economy, expand productivity and create jobs across three rotating shifts.
Yet: It is estimated to cost US$4 billion. Government is expected to contribute US$300-400 million. But in this Budget, only GH¢90 million has been allocated, largely for goods and services. No tax rebates. No clear road map. No regulatory overhaul. The Minority calls it “tokenism,” insufficient to create the promised jobs.
- The Big Push Infrastructure Programme
The Minister claims GH¢63 billion in road contracts have already been awarded and will generate 490,000 jobs. But according to the Minority: The 2025 Big Push allocation was GH¢13 billion.
Commitment authorisation by mid-2025 was GH¢7.6 billion. Even adding the 2026 allocation of GH¢30 billion, total budgeted funds come to GH¢43 billion, still far below the GH¢63 billion claimed. “How,” the Minority asks, “did the Minister award GH¢63 billion in contracts without budget backing?” If true, this raises questions about adherence to the Public Financial Management Act.
Market Confidence: The Numbers That Shocked The Minority
Perhaps the most alarming claim from the Minority relates to the domestic debt market. They report that: 25 out of 45 government bond auctions failed in 2025. Failure rate: 55%, described as “unprecedented.”
Auction shortfalls amount to GH¢17.5 billion. Banks now prefer short-term T-bills, increasing rollover risks. Instead of rallying on budget week, the GSE Composite Index fell 0.69%, and the Financial Stocks Index dipped 0.12%. To the Minority, these numbers send a clear message: investors do not trust the government’s fiscal framework.
Revenue Targets: Can They Be Met?
The Budget projects that revenue and grants will rise to 16.8% of GDP in 2026. But the Minority points to significant revenue shortfalls in 2025. Total revenue shortfall (Q1–Q3) is GH¢7.7bn; Domestic revenue shortfall is GH¢6.8bn; and Tax revenue shortfall is GH¢9bn.
If 2026 targets fail, they predict more mid-year tax hikes, more arrears or more cuts to development programmes.
The Big Picture: A Country In Transition, But To Where?
Taken together, the Budget and the Minority’s response paint two pictures of the same economy: The Government’s Vision – A stable macroeconomic environment; a strengthening currency jobs and growth on the horizon; and ambitious investments to transform the economy.
The Minority’s Warning – stability built on reserve depletion Fiscal discipline achieved through under-spending, infrastructure promises unsupported by funds, a credit market losing confidence, growth without depth or jobs; revenue expectations detached from reality Both narratives contain verifiable facts – and both raise valid questions.
What is clear is that Ghana stands at a critical economic crossroads. Stability is emerging, but it is fragile. Ambition is visible, but financing is uncertain. The nation’s future hinges not on slogans or political claims, but on whether the government can convert promises into credible, well-funded action.
For now, Ghanaians must read the numbers carefully, ask hard questions, and watch closely. Because behind every budget line lies a choice that will shape livelihoods, jobs, and the nation’s economic destiny.
By Ernest Kofi Adu, Parliament House