In my first write-up, “MY FIRST TRUE DARE: ONE AGREEMENT, ONE DOZEN PROBLEMS,” I outlined twelve (12) major concerns raised by informed stakeholders (trade associations, think tanks, researchers, and experts). These concerns ranged from procurement issues (including sole sourcing), to contracting concerns (a newly registered company in Cyprus without relevant track record), to implementation risks including harassment of traders, and most importantly, the non-disclosure of critical financial terms in the contract.
In my second write-up, “MY SECOND TRUE DARE: HAVE WE SIGNED AWAY BILLIONS…?” I analysed market practices and available data and established that Ghana could potentially be paying about GH₵2.8 billion annually to Truedare Investments Limited.
In this third write-up, I go further to test that estimate against emerging facts and basic revenue logic to prove that GH¢2.8 billion is even the least we could be paying to Truedare Investments Limited every year. The implications will help explain why the Traders Advocacy Group Ghana has gone to court to demand full disclosure after being denied access under the Right to Information Act.
Let Us Proceed.
- Ghana should not, at this stage of its digitalisation journey, be dependent on a private foreign vendor to implement such a critical AI-powered Customs system. We have built sufficient local capacity to undertake such systems with the right partnerships.
- Under the NPP, Ghana successfully implemented major digitalisation projects using local capacity, saving the country significant resources and positioning us for the Fourth Industrial Revolution championed by Mahamudu Bawumia.
- These include the Ghana Card, Ghana Airports e-Gate system, GH Ride, Mobile Money Interoperability, Ghana Digital Address System, and ICUMS (implemented with international collaboration but strong local participation).
- Indeed, Ghana avoided a projected US$1.2 billioncost for mobile money interoperability and delivered the same system for about US$4 million using local expertise. That is the benchmark.
- Countries that have successfully deployed advanced digital or AI-driven customs and revenue systems include Rwanda (Rwanda Electronic Single Window System), India (ICEGATE–Indian Customs Electronic Gateway), Singapore (TradeNet), Kenya (iTax System), South Korea (UNI-PASS), and the UAE (Mirsal 2)
- The issue is not whether foreign expertise is needed. It is about structuring the engagement to build local capability, avoid excessive long-term costs, and ensure Ghana benefits beyond just system usage.
- AI-powered Customs systems are not one-off tools. They evolve continuously, depend on local trade patterns and traders experiences, and require ongoing tuning. Without local capacity, Ghana becomes dependent on external vendors for upgrades, leading to continuous costs and potential data control risks.
- One must therefore ask: why have we adopted a model that appears to prioritise a vendor-driven approach over local capability development? Is this consistent with our long-term national digitalisation interest?
- Let us now focus on the financial implications of this deal. It will blow your mind.
- Using a three-year average Customs revenue of about GH₵31 billion (2022–2024), an assumed 45% growth as agreed, and a 20% revenue share, I previously estimated an annual payout of about GH₵2.8 billion to Truedare. Yes. Annual.
- I am now informed that the revenue-sharing arrangement may be around 13%. Using the actual 2025 Customs revenue of GH₵56 billion and a historical growth trend of about 22.3%, I projected 2026 Customs revenue would be approximately GH₵68 billion, which aligns closely with the GRA’s own target of GH₵67.54 billion.
- This means that even without the Publican AI system, Customs revenue was already on track to reach about GH₵68 billion.
- Now consider this:
- If the 45% increase is applied to the GH₵56 billion (2025), Ghana could pay about GH₵3.28 billion to Truedare in 2026.
- If that same increase is applied to the GH₵68 billion (projected 2026 without the system), the payout could rise to about GH₵3.95 billion.
- This raises a critical question: what exactly are we paying for, real incremental value or natural growth?
- There is also a troubling moral hazard. This is a private company, not a state agency. Its incentive is clear. The higher the revenue, the higher its earnings. This could lead to aggressive revenue extraction with consequences for importers, exporters, and ultimately consumers.
- This is why I have added my informed and technical voice to the growing public demand: the full Publican AI Customs contract must be disclosed so Ghanaians can understand exactly what has been signed in their name.
By Joseph Cudjoe, Former MP for Effia Constituency