The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has reportedly projected a win for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in 2024.
Online portal, Starrfmonline, first reported about the EIU projection for the 2024 general elections to be held in Ghana.
In its latest report, the EIU says it expects the NDC replace former President John Mahama as its presidential candidate. This is despite reports that Mr Mahama still wants to contest in 2024.
According to the EIU, “The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024.
Under the constitutionally mandated term limits, Mr Akufo-Addo cannot run for a third term. Mr Mahama is reportedly considering whether to run again, but we expect the NDC to seek to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate. After two terms of NPP government, we expect the NDC to win 2024 presidential election and to gain a small majority in parliament.”
The EIU further noted that “In the 2020 parliamentary election, the NPP and the NDC each won 137 seats, but in January the one independent Member of Parliament (MP) announced that he would co-operate with the NPP, giving it the 138 seats needed for an effective majority.”
“With a razor-thin majority, the Akufo-Addo administration will require all of its MPs to vote with the party in order to push through signature policies, which is likely to necessitate deal-making to persuade MPs, which stands to obstruct immediate policy priorities, such as reducing a large fiscal overhang through expenditure cuts and tax rises.”
Touching on Ghana’s public debt situation, the EIU says “Economic structure risk remains CCC-rated. The current-account deficit, which is estimated to have averaged 2.8% of GDP over the past 48 months, is a drag on the score.”
“The country is currently estimated to be in default, following a rise in principal arrears owed to external official creditors in 2018.
Arrears will remain substantial, raising the perceived risk of a prolonged default among investors.
Regarding the structure of the national accounts, the services sector is the
largest sector of the economy, accounting for about 45% of GDP,” it said.
By Melvin Tarlue