A recent closing poll conducted by Global Info Analytics has shown a commanding lead for Ernest Yaw Anim, the governing party’s candidate in the Kumawu by-election, just two days before the polls open. Anim leads his closest rival, an independent candidate, by 56.5% to 16.8%.
The main opposition NDC’s candidate is in third place with 12.1%, while Kweku Duah (J), another independent candidate, has just 0.6% of the vote.
Of those surveyed, 8.7% are still undecided, while 5.4% said they would not vote.
When a likely voters’ model is used, the poll predicts that Anim will obtain 66% of the vote, with Kweku Duah on 20%, Kwasi Amankwaa with 14%, and Kweku Duah (J) on just 1%.
The poll also found out that infrastructure projects, such as road development, are a significant factor in deciding how to vote.
Approximately 36% of voters said they would be influenced by the ongoing road project, with 65% of those voters intending to vote for Anim.
Even among those who said they are unlikely to be influenced by the project, 61% intend to vote for Anim anyway.
Opinions on whether the government treated the late MP unfairly was also asked, with only 26% of respondents agreeing that the government was unfair. Meanwhile, 62% of respondents disagreed, with 12% not having an opinion.
Political observers believe that the race will be tight, with the late MP having only won the 2020 race marginally.
Additionally, there are concerns that the current economic crisis could lead to a potential threat to the government’s slim majority in parliament if the seat is lost. However, it remains to be seen whether this will materialize.
The poll was carried out on May 20, 2023, and had a sample size of 544 individuals.
By Vincent Kubi