The accuracy of selfstyled Pollster Musah Dankwa’s predictions has been called into question following a series of conflicting forecasts.
As the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Dankwa’s work has significant implications for Ghana’s political landscape.
But his recent outputs raise questions about his competence and motives behind his project.
Shifting Numbers
In July 2022, Musah Dankwa predicted a decisive 58% win for the flagbearer of the opposition National Democratic Congress, NDC, John Mahama in the presidential elections, with the Presidential Candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party, NPP, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia trailing behind at 31%.
However, just three months later, his predictions shifted dramatically, with Mahama’s projected win increasing to 62% and Dr Bawumia’s rising to 33%.
Fast-forward to September 2024, and Dankwa’s numbers have changed once again.
John Mahama’s predicted win has dropped to 51.1%, while Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s has risen to 37.3%, knowing that in Ghana the two main political parties have never fallen before 40% in any election after Kufuor took over.
This 11% decrease in John Mahama’s projected win has raised eyebrows, sparking concerns about the consistency and reliability of Dankwa’s methodology.
Methodological Flaws?
Critics argue that Dankwa’s inability to predict the number of parliamentary seats each party will win casts doubt on his entire predictive model.
If his methodology is robust, why can’t he provide concrete numbers? Instead, he uses ambiguous indicators like “Likely” and “Tossed Up,” which seem like cop-outs.
Parliamentary Seat Projections
Musah Dankwa’s analysis suggests the NDC has secured 159 seats, while the NPP has 95.
However, his methodology is uncertain about 21 seats, leaving room for speculation. Should the NDC win 11 of these contested seats, they could potentially command 170 seats in Parliament.
Implications and Concerns
The inconsistencies in Dankwa’s predictions have significant implications for Ghana’s political landscape.
His forecasts can influence public opinion, shape campaign strategies, and impact investor confidence.
As such, his methodology must be transparent, consistent, and accurate.
-BY Daniel Bampoe