President John Mahama
The ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) fears losing 48 parliamentary seats it currently has in today’s general election.
The findings of a recent research commissioned by the party to assess its chances in the elections paint a gloomy picture about its ability to win the elections because the odds are against the party.
A copy of the report states emphatically, “The outcome of the team work indicates several developments will negatively militate against the chances of the NDC retaining power. Winning the 2016 elections should be seen as a herculean task for all stakeholders in the party.”
It also stated, “As to who may win the presidential poll on December 7, the research team is of the view that the NPP’s flag bearer is ahead of the president.”
The team that commissioned the report is said to have visited all the 275 constituencies across the country and interacted with the electorate, opinion leaders as well as non-governmental organisations (NGOs)
Even though the NDC currently controls majority in parliament with 148 seats as against 122 by the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP), one for the Convention People’s Party (CPP) and one for the People’s National Congress (PNC), the team said, “Barring any unforeseen changes, the NDC risks losing 48 of the seats it presently occupies as against 20 that the NPP could lose.”
Ashanti
In the Ashanti region for instance, “The NDC risks losing Adansi-Akrofuom, New Edubiase, Sekyere-Afram Plains and the NPP will increase its votes massively in the Asawase constituency.”
However, the report indicated that “The NDC can win Adansi-Asokwa because of intra-party feud in the NPP in that constituency” while “in the Offinso North Constituency, the NDC can cause a stir if it puts up a grass root candidate.”
Overall, the report indicated, “The NPP will increase its votes in the Ashanti Region far and above the percentage it garnered in 2012.”
Eastern
The NDC believes it would be able to maintain the seven seats [Afram Plains North, Afram Plains South, Akwatia, Lower Manya Krobo, Upper Manya Krobo, Upper West Akyem and Lower Manya] it has. The party believes it would maintain these seats, even though the research team thinks it may suffer some setbacks that may decrease its votes massively.
In the Akwatia constituency, the factors are said to be different and shaky as the report stated, “Even though the NDC has a very strong candidate in the person of Baba Jamal, the NPP can snatch the seat because his tally of 557 votes in 2012 seems insignificant, especially now that the NPP is strongly united in that constituency.”
The NDC is however, of the conviction that it can snatch the Nsawam-Adoagyiri, New Abirim, Suhum and Ofoase-Ayirebi seats from the NPP because “Suhum’s Frederick Opare-Ansah won the seat with only 388 votes to beat the NDC’s Julius Debrah,” even though the ruling party admitted the fact that “the dynamics there has also changed as the NPP is now united behind their candidate.”
Even though Akuapem South has been an NPP stronghold, the research concluded that a popular grassroots candidate of the NDC can unseat the NPP’s Osei-Bonsu Amoah.”
However, the report indicates that intra-party feud in the NDC in Akuapem South would make its chances difficult.
In the case of Akuapem North, the report emphasized that even though the NPP’s votes declines in every election, the choice of a female candidate is likely going to increase the votes for the party [NPP] in that constituency while in Ofoase-Ayirebi where Kojo Oppong-Nkrumah is the NPP’s candidate, the report indicated, “Even though the NPP candidate is highly visible, locals say he is not a grassroots candidate.”
On the other hand, the NDC fears it would lose the Upper West Akyem seat because “The party is strongly divided in that constituency along tribal lines; and this poses a serious danger …..”
Greater Accra
In the Greater Accra Region where the NDC holds a majority of 19 seats, the NDC research described the findings as ‘alarming,’ admitting that “with better candidates and good strategy, the NPP can snatch nine seats [Ablekuma Central, Adenta, Amasaman, Bortianor-Ngleshie-Amanfro, Krowor, Ledzokuku, Madina, Ningo-Prampram and Sege] from the NDC.”
In Ablekuma Central, it said the NDC’s candidate has been abandoned by the regional and constituency executives and lacks logistics for the crucial battle.
A similar situation is said to exist in the Adentan constituency where the NDC is divided along personalities, with the incumbent Member of Parliament (MP), Emmanuel Ashie Moore, still battling his successor, creating a division in the party.
The Krowor constituency in which the NDC polled 2,820 votes in the 2012 elections with a very strong campaign machinery is also said to be ‘very shaky.’
In Ledzokuku, according to the report, “The NDC is going through deepened intra-party fighting as the constituency executives are determined to sabotage the sitting MP’s second term bid,” which it said poses a serious challenge for the party.
Even though the contest for the Madina seat is between two Muslims, the odds are said to be against the NDC candidate whose popularity seems to have waned with time, whiles in Ningo-Prampram, even though the NDC is strong, the report stated, “The party is divided on tribal and personality lines and this does not present a good fortune for the NDC.”
The incumbent MP in the Sege constituency, Christian Otuteye Corletey, had 3,119 votes in the 2012 elections but “This is not good enough as we go into such crucial elections.”
Northern
The NDC holds 18 out of the 31 seats in the Northern Region as against the 11 being held by the NPP, but it (NDC) still habours the fear of losing 10 more, including Bunkprugu, Gusheigu, Mion, Nanton, Saboba, Tamale North, Yagaba Kubori and Yapei-Kusawgu.
Additionally, the team acknowledges the fact that “The NPP has made significant inroads that pose real threat to the NDC in these constituencies.”
Brong-Ahafo
Also in the Brong-Ahafo Region where the NDC controls 16 out of the 29 seats in parliament, the report captures the situation as ‘even gloomier.’
It risks losing nine to the NPP namely, Asutifi North, Atebubu-Amanten, Banda, Kintampo North and South, Nkoranza South and Techiman North.
Volta
The NDC thinks not much is expected to change in the Volta Region, in spite of the disenchantment among the people against the government.
according to the survey, “The NPP is likely to reduce the NDC votes in all the constituencies and this will pose a serious threat to the fortunes of the NDC in the 2016 elections.
“Even though the Volta Region will continue to back the NDC to win elections, signals are that the NPP will do all it takes to block external votes and reduce votes in the region.” The research team picked up signals that the NPP can win three seats in the region.
Central
In the Central Region where the NDC currently holds 16 of the 23 seats, the NDC is hoping to hold on to the seats while the NPP was working hard to turn the tables in its favour, according to the team, adding that “The dynamics seems to have changed in favour of the NPP The NPP will maintain its seats but will find it difficult to snatch seats occupied by the NDC in the region.”
Upper East
The NDC’s dominance in the Upper East remains formidable but fears intra-party wrangling would reduce its votes, considering the fact that the NPP is poised to increase its votes there.
The research team is convinced the NPP can snatch not less than six seats from the NDC in the region.
Upper West
Same situation is said to exist in the Upper West Region with the electorate said to be so depressed that it could have a negative impact on the fortunes of the NDC.
Western
Even though the NDC claims to have established several projects in the Western Region where it holds 18 out of the 26 seats, the party is still not sure of its chances there.
“The NDC’s performance in the 2012 elections cannot be said to be encouraging by any independent objective observer. What this means is that NDC votes will reduce significantly in the region except the Elembelle constituency.”
By Charles Takyi-Boadu