Ken Agyapong
A new nationwide delegate survey on the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) 2026 presidential primaries shows businessman and former Member of Parliament (MP) for Assin Central, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, in a clear and commanding lead, with the latest findings indicating a contest that has moved from post-election reassessment into consolidation.
The results, published by an independent researcher and chartered accountant, Dr. Evans Duah, are drawn from a three-wave study conducted between August 2025 and January 9, 2026, covering all 16 regions and 276 constituencies.
In the final wave, 31,556 validated interviews were completed from a target sample of 40,988 delegates, representing a 77 percent effective participation rate and an estimated national margin of error of about ±0.5 percent.
Under the report’s Best-Case scenario, where undecided and undisclosed delegates are proportionally allocated, Mr. Agyapong secures 52.59 percent, well ahead of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who polls 36.24 percent. Dr. Bryan Acheampong follows with 8.60 percent, while Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum and Kwabena Agyei Agyepong trail with 2.05 percent and 0.52 percent respectively.
Even under the more conservative Worst-Case scenario, which retains undecided and undisclosed responses explicitly, Mr. Agyapong maintains first position with 47.07 percent, compared with Dr. Bawumia’s 35.92 percent.
The report notes that while allocation assumptions affect absolute margins, they do not alter the competitive order, reinforcing the robustness of Mr. Agyapong’s lead.
Regionally, the study explains Mr. Agyapong’s advantage through delegate density rather than the number of regions won.
He leads in 10 regions, predominantly in the delegate-heavy southern and middle-belt areas such as Ashanti, Greater Accra, Central, Eastern, Western and Volta.
Dr. Bawumia, by contrast, dominates six regions largely concentrated in the northern corridor, where delegate numbers are comparatively lower, limiting their impact on the national tally.
The report also highlights that the most significant shift in delegate preferences occurred early, by the August 2025 baseline, following the NPP’s 2024 general election loss.
Subsequent waves did not reverse this national ordering but rather refined margins as undecidedness declined and preferences became more structured. Across all three waves, leadership remained stable while margins adjusted incrementally.
Dr. Evans Duah, who is behind the study, cautioned that the findings are descriptive rather than predictive, stressing that the research does not model turnout, mobilisation or procedural execution.
However, he argued that the scale of undecided and undisclosed delegates has fallen sufficiently to constrain late-stage volatility, making a dramatic national reversal unlikely without coordinated shifts not indicated by the data.
Taken together, he said the evidence portrays an NPP flagbearer race that has entered a phase of consolidation, with Mr. Agyapong holding a structurally significant lead shaped by regional delegate arithmetic and sustained across multiple analytical scenarios.
A Daily Guide Report