Smart Sarpong, a renowned Associate Professor of Statistics and Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, has unveiled the latest election research findings in Ghana, with NPP flagbearer, Mahamudu Bawumia leading with 49.1%.
John Mahama of the NDC garnered 45.8%.
This marks his sixth face-to-face press engagement since 2014, showcasing his commitment to providing critical third-party feedback to political actors.
Prof Sarpong emphasized the significance of scientific research in politics, citing his accurate prediction of NPP’s 51.4% victory in the 2020 elections.
Despite initial skepticism, his findings proved true, highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making.
The research focused on key elements of quality election research:
– *Heterogeneity vs. Homogeneity*: Recognizing diversity among voters due to language, tradition, culture, chieftaincy, political history, migration, and religion.
– *Sampling*: Understanding Population Specific Sampling (PSS) and its impact on representativeness.
– *Generalizability*: Applying statistical laws, such as Central Limits Theorem, Law of Statistical Regularity, and Law of Inertia of Large samples.
The study collected 100,059 responses from all 276 constituencies across Ghana’s 16 regions, with 99,355 elevated sample views analyzed.
Face-to-face data collection using CAPI forms ensured high-quality data.
Recent polls by Outcomes International show Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leading with 49.4%, while John Mahama trails behind at 45.1%.
These findings underscore the significance of rigorous research in predicting election outcomes.
Sarpong’s work demonstrates that politics has become more scientific, and ignoring data is “fictitious absurdity.”
By embracing quality research, stakeholders can make informed decisions, fostering a more engaging and thought-provoking political process.
BY Daniel Bampoe