The history of the world is replete with a litany of crises that mankind has suffered and battled with for survival. These include but are not limited to the Trojan War, Marathon War, the Crimean War, the First and Second World Wars, the Congo crisis, the Liberian civil war, and lately the Russo -Ukraine conflict. In all these situations mankind was in either despair to suffer the horrors that accompanied those crises or trying to charter a new path of progress. However, man is himself complicit and cannot absolve himself from the causes of the crises and therefore must bear the brunt of consequences thereafter. The African continent is notable for several crises that are natural or human-induced. When confronted by such crises the leaders of the continent seldom act to ameliorate the situation and mostly rely on external powers to provide the solutions for African problems. Several years ago, the African Union formally the Organization of African Unity was formed to tackle the problems of Africa. Sixty years down the lane, Africa is still in the dilemma either divided among itself or lethargic in acting to solve the many wars or conflicts that bedeviled the continent.
Humanity is facing several challenges at this moment, and Sudan is a country that provides a particularly interesting perspective on some of these challenges. Sudan has witnessed several crises that have almost plunged the country into the abyss. The country has been struggling with many political, economic, and social issues in recent years, which have left the country at a crossroads. Since independence in 1956, Sudan has had more than fifteen military coups and has also been ruled by the military for the majority of the republic’s existence, with only brief periods of democratic civilian parliamentary rule. The current transitional government is facing significant challenges in trying to establish stability and democracy. In 2011, the country was divided into two: the republic of Sudan and South Sudan to satisfy the South who felt neglected in the share of the national cake though heavily endowed with resources. It was then believed that the split would cripple and nip in the bud the division which fuel the conflict in Sudan but this has proven futile in the face of the current crisis.
The history of conflicts in Sudan has consisted of foreign invasions and resistance, ethnic tensions, religious disputes, and competition over resources. The Sudan crisis that occurred in April and took many by surprise is further deteriorating causing a humanitarian crisis and prompting urgent attention to address it. An armed conflict between rival factions of the military government of Sudan began on 15 April 2023. It started when clashes broke out in western Sudan, in the capital city of Khartoum, and in the Darfur region. In August 2019, after international pressure and mediation by the African Union and Ethiopia, the military agreed to share power in an interim joint civilian-military unity government (the Transitional Sovereignty Council), headed by a civilian Prime Minister, Abdalla Hamdok, with elections to take place in 2023. However, in October 2021, the military seized power in a coup led by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
The Transitional Sovereignty Council was reconstituted as a military junta led by General Al-Burhan, monopolizing power and halting Sudan’s brief transition to democracy.
The fighting began with attacks by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on key government sites. Airstrikes, artillery, and gunfire were reported across Sudan including in Khartoum. As of 23 April 2023, both the RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and Sudan’s de facto leader and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan claimed control of several key government sites, including the general military headquarters, the Presidential Palace, Khartoum International Airport, Burhan’s official residence, and the Sudan National Broadcasting Corporation (SNBC) headquarters. The conflict between the two generals has led Sudan to the brink of renewed civil war, and it has been referred to as a “burgeoning civil war”. Tensions between the RSF and the Sudanese junta, however, began to escalate in February 2023, as the RSF began to recruit members from across Sudan. A brief military build-up in Khartoum was succeeded by an agreement for de-escalation, with the RSF withdrawing its forces from the Khartoum area. The junta later agreed to hand over authority to a civilian-led government, but it was delayed due to renewed tensions between generals Burhan and Dagalo, who serve as chairman and deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, respectively. Chief among their political disputes is the integration of the RSF into the military: the RSF insisted on a ten-year timetable for its integration into the regular army, while the army demanded integration within two years.
Consequently, the two civil wars between the central government and the southern regions killed 1.5 million people, and a continuing conflict displaced two million people and killed more than 200,000 people. Inflation has been a persistent problem in Sudan, with rates reaching as high as 438% in 2020, according to the World Bank. The country’s inflation rate has been driven by a combination of factors, including the devaluation of the Sudanese pound, increasing food prices, and higher transportation costs due to fuel subsidies being reduced. The conflict has also led to widespread famine, with millions of people facing severe food shortages and malnutrition. Nearly 30,000 Sudanese refugees are reported to have crossed the border into South Sudan. For most of its 10 years of existence, South Sudan has been in a civil war and more than a third of the population has been forcibly displaced—2.2 million as Internally Displaced Persons and 2.3 million as refugees. About 7.8 million are facing acute food insecurity including 43,000 facing famine—virtually all of which is attributed to conflict (Africa Center for strategic studies, 2023).
This reality underscores the compounding effects that each of the region’s crises are having on one another. Sudan had already been hosting over 1 million refugees from its neighbors, as well as 3.7 million of its own internally displaced (out of a population of 45 million). Almost 30 percent of the refugees in Sudan were living in Khartoum and are now trying to evade the fighting there.
By Mr. Emmanuel Kotin, Godfred Alanya, Thomas AkandakÂ
(African Center for Security and Counter-Terrorism)