It’s your turn (Aduru wo so)
Yes, it must be somebody’s turn to lead the NPP but is there any de jure or de facto process to ensure that? And if even there was, whose turn is it really and by which yardstick are we measuring?
Going by presidential primaries, Konadu Apraku has contested since 1997 and thus should it not be his turn? Going by longevity in the party, who between Apraku, Alan and Kwabena Agyapong should be handpicked? By campaign experience, Bawumia has been on an NPP presidential ticket 5 times so it should be his turn because he has more presidential campaign experience than any competitor. By presidential experience (Snr. Apprentice) Bawumia has been vice president for almost 8 years and by any stretch of argument and measure should make 2024 his turn.
Going by measurable commitment, loyalty, and sacrifice to the party, Bawumia has demonstrated over the years, his loyalty and commitment equal or even more than the other candidates. First, he quit an upwardly trajected Central Bank job to support Akufo-Addo in 2008, then subsequently quit an AfDB position to support again in 2012. After the 2012 elections, when NPP— a party who has the men needed a man to stand as a star witness in the Supreme Court challenge, who amongst the men stood up? Bawumia of course. In the run-up to the 2016 elections when NPP needed men to make a charge at the NDC, Bawumia again stood taller among this fray of aspirants. It is a verifiable fact that, apart from Kennedy Agyapong, most of the candidates have never attacked the NDC or their candidates or defended the NPP against NDC attacks and propaganda at any forum.
Going by the NPP tradition argument, it’s the turn of a Dombo to lead the NPP, and it can only be Bawumia’s turn— he’s the compelling Dombo candidate in the race.
Who can break the 8
Bawumia’s potential flagbearership presents an existential threat to the very fiber of NDC core support and strategy. They will need a colossal amount of work to counter a Bawumia candidacy. Prominently, the selection of Bawumia kills a perpetual and yet, potent NDC propaganda that the NPP does not like northerners and Muslims. For NPP that seemingly does not like northerners to elect a northern candidate, sends strong signals and knocks-out the NDC strong propaganda in the north and Muslim communities. The NDC never believed that day would come and if it comes, they will need to alter their strategy to accommodate a Bawumia onslaught.
If selected, Bawumia will go against John Mahama— the first time two members of minority ethnicities and particularly from the northern region will represent the dominant political parties, a testament to Ghana’s consolidating democracy and strong party system.
In the North, while John Mahama comes with a record to defend as a former president, Bawumia comes with a tabula rasa. He only must compare what he delivered as a vice to what John Mahama delivered as a vice and subsequent president. For most people in the north, some key questions are why choose John who can be president for 4 years against Bawumia who can potentially offer 8 years, what did John do for the North as president of Ghana and what could he have done that he failed to do as president? Answers to these questions will be instrumental in voter choices between John and Bawumia.
Over the years, the NDC has courted majority of the support of Muslims and people of northern extraction whether they live up north or have migrated into the Zongos and other settler communities down south. That has been the forte of the NDC and has remained difficult to break for the NPP even where Northern and Muslim vice presidents were added on presidential tickets. With the selection of a potential president under NPP the jury will be out there on how this NDC stronghold of the Muslim bloc of votes will react.
If the election is to be framed on the personalities of potential Northern candidates, Bawumia has an unblemished record in public service, one that is epitomized by competence and incorruptibility. So among the 10 NPP candidates, these unique challenges Bawumia presents to the NDC will change the dynamics of Ghanaian politics and presents him with the best chance to break the 8.
Will Bawumia be his own president?
On Friday the 16th of June, Bawumia filed his nomination to a lot of pomp, applause, and celebration from a throng of party supporters. He was unequivocal, “I have my own vision for Ghana” in the cacophony of ovation.
Bawumia has been nothing but a humble, respectful, and yet firm vice president and surely been his own man. He has undeniably been his own man as a vice president and will be his own man as president.
Ghana’s fourth republican politics teaches us that—our executive presidents are powerful, and no person or group can usurp presidential powers. The case of Atta-Mills and Rawlings illustrate this point. Things aren’t always what they seem.
The 2024 elections will not be an ordinary election. It will be an election where the impact of ethnicity will possibly be diminished by the possible selection of two minority candidates from the north. For the NPP, they will need to solve the Bawumia dilemma and decide whether to go north with an equally qualified Bawumia whose strength in the north breaks an NDC stronghold and provides the NPP, depth to support their dominant strongholds of Ashanti and Eastern for a good path to the presidency.
Not selecting a qualified Bawumia resets the election to the status quo, depending on massive support from Ashanti and Eastern, ceding the north, Muslim and other votes to the NDC and manifesting the NDC propaganda that the NPP is an Akan hegemony. It’s therefore up to the elephant(delegates) to decide whether to go north with Bawumia who brings a bonus or go south with any of the aspirants with all the liabilities that may bring.
By Ouborr Kutando