A new report jointly published by the Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) in the UK and The Outcomes International in Ghana, is predicting that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia will secure a landslide victory with 80.8% of the votes to become the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer for the 2024 general elections.
The report, which uses quantitative research design and computerized assessed telephone interviewing (CAT) technology, focused on assessing the candidates based on their vision and competence, with delegates being prioritized based on these key criteria.
Minimum sample size was determined 9.248 PSE 95 percent confidence level and 1 percent margin of error. However, 9,300 delegates were interviewed in order to increase precision. The research used multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification. Field work for this study was carried between 10th to 20th October 2023. Most of the delegates were youthful male who have little or no education and they are largely married.
It further revealed that Dr. Bawumia enjoys the highest level of support among the delegates, followed by Kennedy Agyapong with 10.4%, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto with 1.1%, and Francis Addai-Nimoh with 0.4%. However, 7.3% of the delegates remain undecided, indicating a small margin for potential shifts in support.
The research report further highlights that factors influencing the delegates’ choice of Dr. Bawumia include his vision for the party, his competence to execute his vision and mandate, and his capability to secure victory for the NPP in the 2024 General Elections.
The NPP is scheduled to hold its National Delegates Conference on November 4, 2023, to officially elect its flagbearer for the upcoming General Elections. Dr. Bawumia’s victory in the super delegates election of the party aligns with the predictions made by the reputable research organizations, with his closest competitor being Kennedy Agyapong.
The report also emphasizes that the party has a significant chance of breaking the eight-year cycle if the government’s performance improves, and the party maintains unity after the primaries. With this research prediction, Dr. Bawumia’s victory in the NPP flagbearership race can be hugely beneficial for the party in the upcoming elections.
By Vincent Kubi