Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia
A new poll by a UK-based research organisation, Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI), has predicted more than 80% win for Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
The research, which was conducted jointly with a Ghanaian-based organisation, The Outcomes International, indicates that Dr. Bawumia will sweep the presidential primaries of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) by 80.8% come November 4, 2023.
His main competitor, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, is expected to secure a partly 10.4% of the votes, while Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto will get 1.1% and Francis Addai-Nimoh will bag 0.4% of the votes.
The report, which used quantitative research design and computerised assessed telephone interviewing (CAT) technology, focused on assessing the candidates based on their vision and competence, with delegates being prioritised based on these key criteria.
Minimum sample size was determined 9.248 PSE 95 percent confidence level and 1 percent margin of error.
However, 9,300 delegates were interviewed in order to increase precision. The research used multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification.
Field work for this study was carried between October 10 to 20, 2023.
According to the research report, 7.3% of the delegates remain undecided, and that the main reasons for the choice of Dr. Bawumia is his vision for the party and the way he has carried out himself throughout the campaign.
The delegates, the poll said, also believe in his competence to carry out his vision and mandate with confidence in his ability to win the 2024 general election for the NPP.
“The main bases for assessing candidates by delegates are the vision of the candidate for the party, the vision of the candidate for the country, and the competence of the candidate,” the report indicated.
It said delegates of the party also believe the NPP stands a good chance of breaking the eight-year political power alternation.
C-SADI research noted that the conviction of the delegates is based on condition that the performance of the government is improved and the party stay united after the primaries.
Following the predictions of these two renowned research organisations, Dr. Bawumia won the party’s super delegates’ election by a landslide.
Some have speculated that Kennedy Agyapong may give Dr. Bawumia a run for his money, but according to the results of this new study, he may not live up to the billing.
On November 4, 2023, the NPP will hold its National Delegates Conference to elect a flagbearer.
By Ernest Kofi Adu