The latest comprehensive scientific survey on the December 7, 2024 elections putsthe flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia,at par with former President John Mahama, of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The survey results, which revealed a significant surge in the choice of Dr. Bawumia,must be worrying for the opposition NDC as it confirms the growing sentiments on the ground that the momentum has since June 2024 shifted from the NDC to the ruling NPP.
The confidential document, sighted by DAILY GUIDE,was done by a University of Ghana team commissioned by one of Ghana’s renowned political researchers, Dr. Isaac Owusu Mensah, formerly of Konrad Adenauer Foundation and now Director of Research, Jubilee House.
According to the survey, 46.3% of voters surveyed said they would vote for the NPP, while an equal 46.3% preferred the NDC.
A significant 3% of voters remain undecided, while smaller parties and independent candidates shared 4.4% of the votes.
The survey also revealed that the majority of voters (80%) are unlikely to change their minds before the elections, making the undecided component crucial in determining the outcome.
In June this year, a baseline survey conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at the Kumasi Technical University (KsTU), revealed that the NDC was the most preferred political party for election 2024, topping with 38.8% against the NPP’s 34.5%.
The KsTU survey said the NDC was leading in popularity as the political party respondents are likely to support in the coming election as at close of April 2024.
But the latest survey shows that the NPP’s approval ratings have jumped from 34.5% (KsTU) to 48% in just four months, putting it in a statistical dead heat with the front-runner party, the NDC, which also has 48%.
Respondents
The study took place in all 276 constituencies from August 1 to 23, 2024. In all, 28,935 qualified Ghanaian voters were interviewed on themes including, voting history over the past two elections cycle, attachment to political parties, readiness to vote in future elections, readiness to vote if elections were held today and which party to vote for, appeal/attractiveness of the two main presidential candidates, voter choice between the two main presidential candidates and visibility of the two presidential candidates in constituencies.
According to the survey, a greater majority (60%) of the respondents indicated that they are attracted to vote for a political party based on its manifesto.
Also, about half (48%) declared that they are politically aligned – with 92% of them indicating that they always vote for their political parties.
“The same proportion (48%) of respondents who are politically aligned support both the NPP and NDC. This means that the two leading political parties in the country have comparable strength,” it emphasised.
The survey said about 9 out of every 10 (87%) are ready to participate in the December 7, 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.
It said Bono (13.7%), Oti (12.1%) and Greater Accra (10.4%) are the regions with the highest number of voters still determining whether to participate in the 2024 general election.
“About 1 out of every 10 voters (9%) indicated that they would not vote in the forthcoming general election. While the main reason (77%) was dissatisfaction with politicians, a considerable 7% cited the day of elections as a Holy Sabbath day,” the survey pointed out.
It stated that Sabbath day as a reason for not voting is particularly a problem in Western (16.6%), Bono (15.1%) and Ahafo (11.2%), Western North (10.6%) and Ashanti (9%) regions.
However, opinions were divided on the government’s capacity to deliver on its campaign promises, with 43% agreeing and 42% disagreeing.
The survey also showed that only 39% of respondents believed the NPP government had implemented most of its policies, despite half of the respondents acknowledging a positive impact on their lives from the government’s programs and policies.
The survey also assessed the performance of the government at the local level and the opposition NDC.
“While 51% of respondents suggested that the performance of MMDCEs will not affect their choice in the December 2024 general contest, a considerable proportion (27%) suggested otherwise,” the survey results said.
It indicated that a little more than half (54%) of respondents are pleased with the performance of the MMDCEs.
“The MMDCEs should work hard to improve their performance to attract votes for the NPP,” the survey disclosed.
According to the findings, a majority (70%) of respondents suggested that the NDC has been doing very well in opposition since 2021.
A Daily Guide Report