The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 53.0 percent by the end of 2026, up from 45.3 percent recorded in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its latest report, the IMF indicated that the country’s debt ratio is expected to increase in the near term before easing to 50.7 percent in 2027, based on a post-debt restructuring scenario.
The report, however, did not clearly outline the specific factors expected to drive the projected increase. Some market watchers argued that higher borrowing or further depreciation of the cedi could alter the debt trajectory, while slower economic growth may also weigh on the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Data from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) show that in 2024, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 61.8 percent, with total public debt estimated at GH¢726.7 billion.
By 2025, the ratio had declined significantly to 45.3 percent, with total debt reducing to GH¢641 billion.
Despite this improvement, analysts caution that the outlook remains uncertain and could shift depending on borrowing trends, exchange rate movements, and overall economic growth performance.
The IMF noted that Ghana remains classified as a debt-distressed country, although recent fiscal and debt management reforms have yielded some progress.
The Fund also warned that public debt pressures are rising globally, with worldwide debt projected to reach 100 percent of GDP by 2029, driven by increased spending needs and higher interest costs.
However, the IMF expects Ghana to move to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028, provided current reforms are sustained.
It has therefore called for credible and well-sequenced fiscal adjustment measures across countries to address growing vulnerabilities in the global financial system.
By Ebenezer Amponsah